Tuesday, 1 May 2018
Wednesday, 13 December 2017
I’m delighted to share the news that my latest PhD student (co-supervised with Dr Mary Ockenden) to complete is Kirsty, who recently defended her thesis on Phosphorus Transfers to Water under Climate Change. Her examiners were Professor Helen Jarvie and Dr Alona Armstrong. Well done Kirsty, happy days. we have to share the results with the world and get them to wake up to the issues.....
Saturday, 18 November 2017
Andy Tweedy has recently started his PhD working between myself and Marc Stutter at the James Hutton Institute and Louise Walker at EMS. Andy has an exciting project studying phosphorus mobility in soils as affected by carbon and nitrogen. He is part of the STARS Soil CDT #starsoil. Welcome Andy I’m confident you will go a long way! Here are some pictures of our recent gathering in Lancaster.
Friday, 17 November 2017
Wednesday, 13 September 2017
Wednesday, 30 August 2017
An uncertain future? Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change
Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).
This work reflects the importance of the long term data from the National Defra Demonstration Test Catchments and the NERC NUTCAT projects, all coming together. The more you think about thsi work and its implications, the more serious are the implications. This is just the beginning......